Interlude Between Crises

Over the past few months I have received numerous requests that I devote some considered commentary to recent events in my adopted country. Until now I have refrained from making any public statements. Like anyone living here it is almost impossible not to take sides. Yet the situation is incredibly complicated and bewildering. Each issue has its own set of nuances and although I have lived here for five years there is still much that I do not understand about Thai conventions and mindsets.

Now, on the eve of my first public address to a Thai audience on some future options available to this nation, and as co-convenor of a small group of non-aligned public intellectuals who have set about the task of crafting a suite of scenarios for a “third way” I feel it appropriate to break my self-imposed silence and speak out regarding the need for reconciliation and reform.

We had been on the road for almost three weeks. During that time we caught only intermittent snippets of news about the deteriorating situation at home. Official reports coming out of Thailand amounted to government propaganda and could not be trusted. Even so-called neutral English-language newspapers were noticeably biased towards officialdom. Eventually we just relied on reports from foreign journalists supplemented by phone calls with local friends and family who were at least credible first-hand witnesses to what was going on.

Returning home was even more distressing, although I am not sure what my wife and I had actually expected. We arrived at Suvarnabhumi airport off an Emirates flight from Sydney in the early hours of Sunday morning - barely a day after the military put a precise yet bloody end to protests by UDD “red shirt” activists. Streets that normally would be bustling with energy were deserted. Not a soul could be seen. The curfew was in full swing. We spotted a few smoke trails and the stench of burning tyres still hung in the air. We were home.

When I ventured out the following morning to view the carnage I was shocked even though I had been told what to expect. The heart of Bangkok was transformed into a scene out of a painting by Hieronymous Bosch. Amazing Thailand, the brand presenting Thailand to the world, was smashed, perhaps permanently.

Two weeks have past but nothing of substance has changed. If anything the provocative, politically-motivated behaviour of the government (particularly in charging former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra with terrorism) is making matters far worse than they need to be and is sending strong signals that genuine community reconciliation is a bridge too far. Besides such ill-advised strategies nearly always backfire and in this case the international community has already passed judgement on the ineffectiveness and self-serving nature of Thailand’s political elite.

I get a strong sense, too, that the smouldering anger and resentment of an entire community has just gone to ground. People are waiting - patiently biding their time for the next opportunity to redress issues of inequality that run deep in Thai society.

Meanwhile Prime Minister Abhisit and his government continue to insist that normality has returned to Thailand. The truth is that life in this nation is anything but normal – at least if by the term normality we mean the way things should be in a civilized country during these early years of the 21^st century. The facade of daily life appears normal enough. Glancing at the images of young celebrities staring out from the pages of local magazines or buying sticky rice and grilled chicken from the street food vendors, one might be forgiven for thinking that life had indeed returned to normal.

But looks can be so deceptive. Although the curfew has been lifted, a state of emergency continues to apply in some provinces. At best an uneasy calm prevails. The famed Thai smile has vanished, only to be replaced by furtive glances and whispers in cafes about who shot Sae Daeng and what really took place in Wat Pathuwanaram on that fateful night in May. Sadly I no longer feel so welcome here as I walk down Soi Thonglor to do some shopping. I notice the suspicion lurking deeply in the eyes of those who scuttle past me, resolutely avoiding my gaze.

There are also cold statistics to be considered and explained. Tourism has collapsed to the extent that occupancy rates for many hotels is 25 percent less than this time last year. Small business owners are more anxious about the future than ever before. University student numbers have decreased. Unemployment is going through the roof.

In spite of the various commercial trappings that give this nation a semblance of sophistication, Thailand remains fundamentally feudal in its social and power structures as well as its belief systems. But the veneer of urbane erudition is beginning to wear thin. Propped up by a propaganda machine and an elite that assumes a compliant public will continue to remain loyal to the state’s most venerable institutions, tolerance and trust in legitimate authority are nevertheless crumbling. The wealthy are beginning to fear for their future. Cultural traditions which, until now, have been the bedrock of Thai society, are losing their mystique and gloss. Most significantly the social and political divide, once secreted away from public view, has burst open like a cancerous sore. This time there can be no escape from reality and the healing, if at possible, will take decades rather than months.

At the same time possibilities for greater political inclusion and economic equality have been held up to the rural poor. They have seen what is on offer in the global marketplace and, like their compatriots in the cities, want a piece of the action. That is only fair after all. Even as the activists camped amidst the downtown shopping malls, stuffed full of international brand names they would never be able to afford, a new truth began to dawn on those present. This was a revelation to many in the crowd and immediately transcended any allegiance they might have had to Thaksin. For this revelation was symbolic of a better future for all Thais. Its essence is easily summarised as it conforms to the basic principles of democracy: Life has treated us unequally. But it does not need to be like this. Injustice and poverty can be eliminated from our country. Democracy is the force that can liberate us. We will not endure serfdom any longer. All it will take to create a more equitable society is unity and political will.

As it turned out, the protest leaders grossly underestimated the degree to which this symbolism would be acceptable to the most powerful groups and factions in Thailand. It created a brutal wedge between those that empathised with these principles and those who had a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. After that the ensuing conflict was inevitable.

Yet upon reflection there is considerable merit in what the protestors were advocating. Had they sought less disruptive means to voice their protest perhaps the results would have been more positive. For although Thai citizens are wealthier now than at any other time in the past five decades, the relative gap between the wealthy urban elite and the rural poor has become a chasm. Unfortunately the means chosen by the UDD to voice their complaints has simply generated more distrust. Meanwhile the elite, the security forces and powerful business interests continue to feather their own nests, doing little to re-establish trust or deal with the corruption that is at the root of the problem.

Embedded corruption and an extreme polarisation of views, potentially leading to further insurrection, have become the greatest insidious dangers for Thailand. They threaten to derail any tentative first steps towards reconciliation and the re-building of trust. Recent history is not much help. The turbulent years that commenced with a bloodless coup, toppling populist former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, has seen two constitutions, four different governments, four party dissolutions and six different prime ministers. Meanwhile social conflict along traditional class lines has increased and the violence in the far south, much of it probably the result of internal competition between rogue paramilitary factions, continues unabated.

So what can be done to ensure that the current lull in hostilities is not merely an interlude between crises?

As can be learned from the establishment of the South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission, the path to genuine reconciliation requires the compassion to forgive, the willingness to include and transcend past practices, an authentic nurturing of trust, and a sincere desire to bring about national unity and pride. At this early stage in Thailand’s reconciliation process none of these factors are present. In that respect at least one has to point the finger of blame at the current government.

Over and above these principles, the policy path to reconciliation and future progress is quite transparent. A majority of Thai citizens want political and social inclusion. They also want their government to continue subsidizing the rural economy (a trend that has been in train for at least the past two decades) in order to eradicate inequalities and unfair discrimination. They want to eliminate double standards. And they want to change those laws that manipulate circumstances in order to prohibit freedom of expression.

Naturally there are more intractable issues that will take far longer to address:

1. Reform of the police force is essential, particularly in terms of eliminating embedded corruption and focusing their attention on internal security matters.
2. The bloated military, too, needs urgent attention if it is to command the respect its leaders deserve. Conscription is an outdated mechanism and, along with the various paramilitary units, should be scrapped in favor of a more professional service. Here the emphasis should be on maintaining external and border security rather than an instrument for internal political maneuvering.
3. In order to ensure that the police and the military remain in service to the monarchy and to the people a stronger degree of coherence and cohesion will be required within the political arena. This is best bought about through the exercise of democratic principles.
   
4. Finally there needs to be a massive investment in overhauling what has become an archaic educational system that still emphasizes basic literacy and rote memorization instead of curiosity, inquiry, creativity, innovation and entrepreneurship.

Without this level and scale of democratic principles and policies applied to societal design as well as the domestic economy, the outlook for the nation is dismal indeed. But if the struggle for reconciliation is undertaken with purity of intent and a “third way” forged to include all parties and interests, Thailand’s social and economic future in Asia will be assured.

Let us hope that they can pull it off. The alternatives are simply too depressing to entertain.